BC vs Merrimack Game 2

	1st	2nd	3rd	TOT
BC	1	1	-	2
MC	1	1	-	2

Game Stats (thru 2 periods)

17

Shots

6

BC

MC

BC outshooting Merrimack nearly 3:1

Win Probability Model

61%

BC Win

39%

MC Win

Based on season stats + home ice advantage

PYTHAGOREAN WIN %

64.0%

GF²/(GF²+GA²)

PYTHAGOREAN WIN %

56.0%

GF²/(GF²+GA²)

Poisson Expected Goals

3.10

BC xG

vs

2.85

MC xG

Avg of team offense vs opponent defense rates

How It's Calculated

Log5 method pits each team's Pythagorean record against the other — BC 58% neutral site.
Home ice bump adds ~3% (college hockey home teams win ~57%).
Poisson model estimates expected goals by averaging each team's scoring rate against the opponent's defensive rate.

BC: 3.41 GF/g | 2.56 GA/g

MC: 3.14 GF/g | 2.79 GA/g

Scoring Summary

1st Period

12:58

Justin Gill

A: Nick Pierre

Point-blank finish off pass from low in BC zone

MC

19:57

Aram Minnetian

Roofed a rebound over Lundgren's right shoulder — buzzer-beater

BC

2nd Period

10:04

Nick Pierre

Slap shot from below the point

MC

1:28

James Hagens (17)

Brilliant deke around defender, scored through traffic

BC

3rd Period

In progress...

Key Players

James Hagens

BC — Center

1G tonight | 17G 16A season

Aram Minnetian

BC — Defense

1G (buzzer-beater 1st)

Max Lundgren

Merrimack — Goalie

15 saves thru 2

Justin Gill

Merrimack

1G (2 goals in 2 games)

Nick Pierre

Merrimack

1G 1A

Penalties

Oscar Hemming BC Holding, Slashing

Mark Hillier BC Roughing

Dean Letourneau BC Embellishment (offset)

Cam Kungle MC Interference

Justin Gill MC Tripping

Caelan Fitzpatrick MC Hooking

Nick Pierre MC Tripping

BC Season Advanced Stats

3.41

GF/Game

2.58

Goals For

Goals Against

92

Total Goals

69

848

Total Shots

10.8%

Shot Attempts

Shooting %

26.4%

Power Play (24/91)

82.5%

Penalty Kill (80/97)

.911

Cloutier SV%

2.33

Cloutier GAA

46.1%

Faceoff % (714/1549)

+16

Team +/- Diff

285
Blocks

303
PIM

16
GW Goals